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BTS Statistics Release: November 2016 Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI)

Wednesday, January 11, 2017

The Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI), which is based on the amount of freight carried by the for-hire transportation industry, rose 0.5 percent in November from October, rising for the second consecutive month, according to the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Bureau of Transportation Statistics’ (BTS). The November 2016 index level (123.2) was 30.1 percent above the April 2009 low during the most recent recession.
 

The level of for-hire freight shipments in November measured by the Freight TSI (123.2) was 1.2 percent below the all-time high level of 124.7 in July 2016. BTS’ TSI records begin in 2000.

The October index was revised to 122.6 from 122.0 in last month’s release and the September index from 120.8 to 121.1.  Monthly numbers for July and August were revised up slightly.

The Freight TSI measures the month-to-month changes in for-hire freight shipments by mode of transportation in tons and ton-miles, which are combined into one index. The index measures the output of the for-hire freight transportation industry and consists of data from for-hire trucking, rail, inland waterways, pipelines and air freight. The TSI is seasonally-adjusted to remove regular seasons from month-to-month comparisons.

Analysis: The November increase was broad in terms of mode. All freight modes grew from October except for pipeline (data on individual modes are seasonally adjusted  by BTS). The November rise took place in the context of mixed signals in other economic indicators that often impact transportation – employment increased by 178,000 jobs, retail sales rose by 0.1 percent, and personal income grew by less than 0.1 percent, while the Federal Reserve Board Industrial Production index declined by 0.4 percent, and housing starts declined by 4.7 percent from October.

Trend: The 0.5 percent Freight TSI rise in November combined with the October increase of 1.2 percent brought the index to 1.7 percent above its September level, the low-point since March. The November level was still 1.2 percent below its record high of 124.7 in July 2016. In the last 12 months the index rose in eight months and declined in four months, for a total increase of 2.0 percent. The November level was the second highest level the Freight TSI reached since December 2014. The index has risen 30.1 percent since the low of 94.7 in April 2009.

Index highs and lows: For-hire freight shipments in November 2016 (123.2) were 30.1 percent higher than the recent low in April 2009 during the recession (94.7). The November 2016 level was 1.2 percent below the historic peak reached in July 2016 (124.7).

Year to date: For-hire freight shipments measured by the index were up 1.5 percent in November compared to the end of 2015.

See Freight TSI Statistics Release for summary tables and additional data. See Transportation Services Index for historical data and methodology.